ℹ Context & Notes
Skill Overlap Between Belts
While higher belts generally indicate greater skill, there's significant overlap between levels. An experienced blue belt may outperform a newer purple belt.
* "other things being equal" (which they rarely are) — The "average" belt will typically best the "average" belt below, but ymmv.
Belt as Ability Proxy
Belt color is a decent proxy for ability, but there are wide discrepancies within belt colors.
「能力の概算」として帯色が悪くないですが、同じ帯色でも幅広く分布されています。
Belt Distribution
There are typically lots of white belts, fewest brown belts — they either go to black or quit before brown.
Not All Training Hours Are Equal
One hour of half-assed shrimping and resistance-less armbar drills vs. the same one hour with a great mentor giving tailor-made pointers and increasingly challenging drills — keeping you in the flow zone.
Outliers & Edge Cases
— Ex-wrestling champ or trained since age 5: Blue Belt
レスリング背景や5歳から練習している青帯
レスリング背景や5歳から練習している青帯
— Out-of-prime hobbyist Brown / Black Belt with a bad knee
「最近練習不足の茶黒帯、膝も痛いし」
「最近練習不足の茶黒帯、膝も痛いし」
— Elite "colored belt" competitors
「色帯の一流選手」
「色帯の一流選手」
— Always some outliers: freaks of nature, phenoms, full-time pros, PED users
⚙ Simulation Settings
Avg years to reach each belt
"From previous" = time spent at that belt level. "Total" = cumulative from white belt.
| Target Belt | From Previous | Total (calculated) |
|---|
Attrition & skill spread per belt
"% Quit at Belt" = total fraction who drop out over their entire time at that belt — not per year. Converted to an annual rate internally using the avg-years period. Skill σ = spread within belt (wider = more overlap between belts).
| Belt | % Quit at Belt | Skill σ |
|---|
White 0 · Blue 0 · Purple 0 · Brown 0 · Black 0 · Dropped 0